The threat of annexing Greenland, the imminence of a trade war, Elon Musk's interference in the German legislative elections... It's been thirteen days since Donald Trump made his grand return to the White House, and it's been thirteen days since the new American president and his close advisor Elon Musk have been frontally "provoking" Europe on commercial, legal and even geographical levels.
Faced with these threats and vociferations, Europe's response was eagerly awaited. After a time of "stun" and even disbelief, it is a "pragmatic" and even transactional response that seems to emerge... and that satisfies no one. A look back at these last thirteen days during which the European Union (EU) has been looking for its defense strategy, an approach that will be the subject of fierce discussions on February 3. An informal summit in Belgium is dedicated to defence and transatlantic relations.
Episode 1: The lack of reaction
Trump-Musk: 10. Ursula von der Leyen: 0. In the current confrontation between Donald Trump and his advisor Musk and the European Union, it is difficult to find a starting point. The “threats” and “provocations” of a head of state, supported by the tech and artificial intelligence giants, actually begin well before the president’s inauguration day. In December, the newly re-elected candidate believes that Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark – a member of the EU and NATO – should belong to the United States for reasons of “national security”. The annexation inclinations of December, already expressed during his first term, are repeated at a press conference in early January.
For his part, Elon Musk, future powerful special adviser to the White House and the richest man in the world, interferes without restraint in the German legislative elections on his social network X (formerly Twitter). He declares that "Only the AfD can save Germany" before interviewing Alice Weidel, the leader of the far-right party, himself, again on his X network.
A few days later, Mark Zuckerberg, head of WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram, enters the race. He sides with the pro-Trump camp, and announces that he is ending his fact-checking program on his social networks. For the latter, European digital regulation is a disguised customs duty against American tech companies. It must be said that his group, Meta, has been sentenced several times by European courts to hefty fines.
The argument hits the mark. It was taken up by Donald Trump himself, at the Davos Economic Forum, this time after his inauguration. "We have very important grievances to formulate with regard to the EU", declared the billionaire on January 23. For the tenant of the White House, the condemnations of Google, Apple, and Meta are disguised taxation of Europe. The European courts "have earned billions thanks to Apple, (…) Google. However, these companies are American, whether they like it or not", he tackles.
Faced with these statements, Brussels seems almost KO. Unlike in December, when Ursula von der Leyen reacted strongly against the Chinese social network TikTok, suspected of having manipulated the Romanian elections, no sound comes out of the corridors of the Commission. The president, suffering from severe pneumonia, makes no statement. Her vice-president Henna Virkkunen, the Finnish commissioner in charge of technological sovereignty, does the same, with the exception of a tweet on January 11 that does not directly cite Zuckerberg, Musk or Trump, but which details the role of social networks. "In Europe we want to create a safe and fair digital environment," she writes.
This initial defense was immediately undermined by an article in Monde, corroborated by the Financial Times. Both papers dampened any hope of a somewhat angry reaction from the European Union. According to the two media outlets, Brussels, instead of reacting, has decided to put a stop to all its investigations against American digital giants such as Apple, Meta, Google and X.
A 180-degree turnaround when you consider that five months earlier (August 2024), Thierry Breton, then European Commissioner for the Internal Market, directly and in an "uninhibited cowboy" mode, fired off a letter to Elon Musk, boss of X, asking him to immediately comply with the DSA, the Digital Services Act or European regulation on digital services.
For the British daily, Brussels would re-examine all its investigations in light of this new context. If the news was immediately denied by the Commission, it caused many European politicians to react. Jean-Noël Barrot, former Minister for Digital Affairs and current Minister for Europe, asks the Commission "not to shake its hand" in its application of digital regulations, on RTL. MEP Nathalie Loiseau (Horizons) considers the "Commission's silence" "shocking": "We are not vassals. We are not clients of the United States,” insists French politicians on Sud Radio.
“I generally expect Europe to wake up, for Mrs von der Leyen to wake up, for us to finally stop being the world’s big naïve people,” underlines socialist MEP Pierre Jouvet, interviewed on Public Sénat and LCP on January 17. "Europe has an obligation to investigate Musk's practices. Europe, if it gives itself the means, is powerful enough to weigh in," maintains Thierry Breton, the former European Commissioner, in the columns of Echos.
Behind the scenes, they explain that they are waiting for Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. It is better to spare the one who threatened the Old Continent with customs duties and who could abandon the Europeans in Ukraine.
Episode 2: a timid reaction from Europe falls
But finally on January 17, the long-awaited reaction from Brussels falls, three days before Donald Trump's inauguration. It is neither Ursula von der Leyen who bangs her fist on the table, nor the 27 who send a more than diplomatic message to Donald Trump. As Emmanuel Macron had done a few days earlier by targeting Elon Musk without insulting the American president, the European Commission published a press release, in which it explained that it was taking "additional investigative measures in the context of the ongoing DSA procedure against X", Elon Musk's platform.
This time, it is a question of "shedding light on the compliance of X's recommendation systems with the DSA obligations", explains Henna Virkkunen, the Commission's Vice-President responsible for Technological Sovereignty.
The message is clear: no investigation has been officially shelved. And for X and Elon Musk, the case has thickened since the episode in early January.
The possibility of frozen procedures and suspended investigations is also challenged by the Director General of the European Commission's Competition Directorate, Olivier Guersent, who spoke before the Council of State during a conference on January 21 on the regulation of social networks. According to the senior European official, it is impossible for the Commission to stop the ongoing investigations, unless it justifies it.
Episode 3: the pragmatic approach with red lines
And when Ursula von der Leyen finally speaks out on the subject in Davos, it is to say that the Europeans are "ready to negotiate [with Washington] by being pragmatic", without however "giving up (their) principles". Last November, she said after a phone call with Donald Trump that Europe should be open to buying more American LNG.
The same story was echoed by Christine Lagarde, current president of the European Central Bank, who, after Donald Trump’s election, said in the pages of the Financial Times,that Europe should buy more American weapons and LNG to avoid a trade war with Trump.
We will have to wait until Monday, January 27 to find out a little more. At a press conference, Kaja Kallas, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs, follows Ursula von der Leyen's line. She advocates "mediation with Trump". And even "if it is not always necessary to take everything Donald Trump says literally", "this new administration has a very transactional language. It wants to negotiate on a number of issues. So we must do the same", she explains. While adding that there will be no negotiations on Greenland.
Since then, nothing new on the horizon. Except that the pressure, on the European side, is increasing a notch. Because since January 20, politicians, industrialists and associations have sent numerous messages to the European Commission, asking it to apply the DSA (Digital Services Act), the DMA (Digital Markets Act), or simply to react, reports Contexte.
Starting with MEPs who are demanding on January 23 the rapid application of the DMA, like by Frenchwoman Stéphanie Yon Courtin (Renew Europe). Followed a few days later by another missive, this time sent by 12 EU Ministers for European Affairs, including Benjamin Haddad, who are calling on the executive to "lead the charge by fully exploiting the powers conferred by the Digital Services Regulation (DSA) to address all risks and by accelerating ongoing investigations".
40 civil society lobbies demand that the executive not give in to American threats, by implementing the DSA and investing in decentralized social networks. Same story for associations and digital industries, in another letter dated January 27.
For his part, Donald Trump is also increasing the pressure. The man described as "a little tyrant" by Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize winner in economics and former chief economist of the World Bank in the columns of 1, is striking a blow to the transatlantic framework for the transfer of personal data. He is ending the safeguards that surrounded the development of AI in the United States, and is threatening to impose customs duties on the European Union if it does not buy more American shale gas. All the while maintaining his ambitions to annex Greenland. Enough to push the Danish Prime Minister to tour European capitals to secure their support, no later than this week.
Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commissioner for Trade, is banking on “the competitive threat posed by China” to appease Donald Trump, reports Politico. Couldn’t this threat be fought jointly by the EU and the United States? Brussels could team up with Washington to strengthen economic security against China, he suggests. The commissioner is taking the opportunity to minimize the American trade deficit with Europe, a deficit that Donald Trump regularly complains about. Not sure that these arguments of reason will convince the president.
Episode 4: Europe must close ranks, and… And?
So what attitude should we adopt? For Kaja Kallas, who spoke last Monday, the EU must, in the face of Trump, close ranks. Especially since within the 27, not all countries agree on the approach to adopt. Alongside the Italian Giorgia Meloni, who does not hide her closeness to Elon Musk, Marc Ferracci, the French Minister of Industry and Energy, believes, in Politico, "you cannot enter into a negotiation by making concessions from the outset" – namely, promises on purchases of American gas.
However, recalls Kaja Kallas, Vice-President of the European Commission, "we are stronger when we are united. Europe is a heavyweight and a geopolitical and economic partner," she emphasizes. The EU is indeed a market of 450 million consumers, the 2nd commercial, economic and monetary power in the world: facts often forgotten by Europeans themselves who must "become aware of their power and work towards their independence", argues Nicole Gnesotto, vice-president of the Jacques Delors Institute, in the pages of 1.
For Jean-Marie Cavada, president of the Institute for Fundamental Digital Rights (iDFRights) who spoke on Thursday 30 January during a hearing in the Senate on AI and human rights, there is only one solution to "this desire for imperialism": "build a sovereign (European) power that would allow (...) borrowing, (...), building a defence (...) and building a European technological apparatus that respects a minimum of fundamental values". A way of the cross for the 27 EU countries which could be forced, under American pressure, and despite their thousand and one disagreements, to take the plunge.
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